India unveils its space vision to 2040by Ajey Lele
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| India has outlined an ambitious lunar roadmap for the next 15 years. The goal is to land an Indian astronaut on the lunar surface by 2040. |
During National Space Day, key leaders, including the prime minister, space minister, and ISRO chairman outlined India’s bold space vision. ISRO unveiled a 15-year roadmap with tight timelines, aiming to position India as a leading spacefaring nation. The prime minister hailed the progress made by ISRO in fields of semi-cryogenic engines and electric propulsion and emphasized the need for India to increase the number of rocket launches per year.
It is important to place this space sector roadmap in the context of a prime minister’s speech delivered on National Space Day. This would help in understanding India’s strategic vision for space sector.
What India wants to achieve
India is pushing for indigenous space technology under the mantra “Reform, Perform, and Transform”. Its space vision looks beyond the stars, built around three key horizons:
- Using space technologies for societal development: For improving efficiency in various government sectors including education, healthcare, agriculture, and disaster management.
- Advancing space science and technology: Undertake human space missions including a human mission to the Moon by 2040 and establishing its own space station. Explore deep space with missions to other planets such as Venus. ISRO has already carried out missions like dedicated astronomy mission called AstroSat (2015) and a solar mission called Aditya-L1, its first dedicated space-based solar observatory (2023). India is expected to expand on such ideas further in coming years.
- Fostering a vibrant commercial space ecosystem: Over 350 startups are already active in the space sector, with a goal of creating at least five unicorns in five years. ISRO is transferring launch technology to the private sector, enabling future satellite launches via PSLV and SSLV.
India is planning to launch more than 100 satellites during the next 15 years. There is a proposal to launch 12 to 15 satellites annually, mainly for Earth observation, ocean studies, and meteorological observations, and for strategic surveillance applications. The focus would remain towards leveraging space technology for food and water security, disaster management, environmental sustainability, and inclusive growth. There are also plans to launch a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite constellation to provide satellite-based internet. Around 140 satellites would be launched under a public-private partnership (PPP) model.
India has outlined an ambitious lunar roadmap for the next 15 years. The goal is to land an Indian astronaut on the lunar surface by 2040. To achieve this, India must pursue a systematic and continual approach to its Moon program, building competence step by step. India’s Moon program began with the successful launch of the Chandrayaan-1 mission during 2008, when an orbiter was put into lunar orbit. India’s third mission to the Moon in 2023 was about a lander and a rover unit on the lunar surface and undertaking observations for one lunar day. Chandrayaan-4, a msaple return mission, could be launched during 2027–2028. Chandrayaan-5 is scheduled for launch in 2028–2029. This would be a joint mission with Japan and will explore the Moon’s south pole using a 350-kilogram lunar rover built by Japan, while India will provide the lander and scientific instruments. The Chandrayaan-6, 7, and 8 missions are currently in the planning phase. ISRO is also keen to establish a lunar navigation satellite system.
| Ambitious planning is essential to push the boundaries, but at the same time, it is also important to maintain a realistic outlook. |
ISRO has already started developing a launch vehicle for undertaking human Moon missions, called the Lunar Module Launch Vehicle (LMLV), formerly known as the Next Generation Launch Vehicle (NGLV). This rocket will serve both Earth observation and planetary exploration needs. It would be a multi-utility vehicle capable of carrying about 27 tonnes to the Moon and 80 tonnes to LEO.
Regarding India's human mission to LEO, the Gaganyaan program is making rapid progress. By the end of 2025, India is expected to launch the first uncrewed Gaganyaan mission to LEO, with the first crewed mission expected to happen during 2027. ISRO has also started working on its space station program. This station, called Bharat Antariksh Station, is expected to become a reality by 2035.
Reality check
Space agendas are often launched with lot of ambitions and motivations. They are often driven by scientific curiosity, national pride, promise of technological advancement, and commercial interests. Universally, it has been observed that various space projects do face significant delays due to mission failures, unforeseen engineering challenges, budgetary limitations, and disproportionate political priorities. Ambitious planning is essential to push the boundaries, but at the same time, it is also important to maintain a realistic outlook. Hence, it is important to look at ISRO’s future plans with realistic expectations and careful evaluation.
During his speech, the prime minister expressed a desire for the private sector to step forward so that India reaches a stage where 50 rockets are launched every year within the next five years. Major space players like the US and China are npw routinely undertaking such volume (or more) of launches. However, in case of India, ISRO conducted three space launches in 2020, two in 2021, five in 2022, seven in 2023, and five in 2024. So, would India be able to leapfrog in launch activity?
India currently has one spaceport, Satish Dhawan Space Centre, with two launch pads; a third will be ready by March 2029. A second spaceport for SSLV is being built at Kulasekarapattinam, expected to operational by 2027–2028. Hence, there are limitations in regards to launch capacity.
According to India’s 15-year space plan, the country is expected to launch approximately 10 to 15 satellites annually. To support around 50 rocket launches per year, this would necessitate conducting roughly 35 to 40 launches on a commercial basis. Achieving this objective will depend on several critical factors, including the volume of commercial launch orders, the capabilities of India’s domestic industry, and the ability to reduce turnaround times for satellite launches. Much of this responsibility will fall on companies such as Larsen & Toubro (L&T) and the public sector enterprise Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), to whom ISRO is transferring launch vehicle technology.
ISRO’s Small Satellite Launch Vehicle (SSLV) is designed to enable rocket assembly and launch within approximately one week. Reaching this level of operational efficiency will require significant advancements in key areas, such as first-stage reusability, rapid booster refurbishment, and enhanced flexibility throughout all stages of launch operations. On the private sector front, Indian start-up Skyroot Aerospace successfully developed and launched a suborbital rocket called Vikram-S in 2022. This company is now developing orbital-class rockets.
All of these developments highlight the considerable effort required to meet the ambitious target of around 50 launches per year.
ISRO has been working on the concept of a human spaceflight mission since around 2006. Initially conceived under the generic name “Orbital Vehicle”, the plan was to design a simple capsule capable of carrying two astronauts into space for about a week, followed by a splashdown landing upon reentry. The project was formally commissioned in 2007 and, that same year, ISRO successfully conducted the Space Capsule Recovery Experiment (SRE). An experimental capsule (SRE) was placed in orbit and later recovered from the Bay of Bengal after re-entering from an altitude of 635 kilometers. The primary objectives were to test the thermal protection system and validate other critical technologies. Due to various challenges, possibly financial and otherwise, the project went into dormancy.
Currently, this project is known by the name Gaganyaan and the government approval for this project was received during 2017. Gaganyaan project envisages demonstration of human spaceflight capability by launching crew of three to an orbit of 400 kilometers and bring them back safely to Earth by landing in Indian sea waters. There were indications that India’s first crewed space mission could happen in 2022, to coincide with the 75th anniversary of Indian independence. However, the Covid-19 pandemic and other unforeseen setbacks pushed the timeline further. As of now, the first human spaceflight under Project Gaganyaan is expected to take place by 2027. Globally, space programs often face timeline overruns, and in missions involving human lives, the utmost caution and rigorous safety measures are essential. During the recent Axiom-4 mission, ISRO insisted on implementing all necessary corrective measures after oxygen leak issues were identified in the Falcon 9 rocket prior to launch.
| Interestingly, there has been no talk in India about a Mars agenda. |
Another future plan involves the upgrade of India’s indigenous navigation system, NAVIC. Developed by ISRO as a regional navigation system with seven satellites, the first satellite in this system was launched on July 1, 2013. The proposal now is to expand the system by adding 11 satellites in geostationary orbit and an additional 24 satellites in medium Earth orbit to enhance its coverage. However, in its current form, NAVIC has faced several challenges and has underperformed relative to expectations. ISRO must learn from these setbacks as it works to expand NAVIC, with the aim of establishing a global navigation footprint.
ISRO is expected to complete the development of a semi-cryogenic engine shortly. This engine is necessary for the existing LVM3 and forthcoming heavy-lift and super-heavy-lift launch vehicles. Around 2005, ISRO entered into a collaboration with Ukraine for the development of this rocket engine. The project was approved by the government during 2009. While this technology is difficult to master, it could be said ISRO has taken a long time to complete this project.
There is an important piece of history that needs to be mentioned in this regard. This project was actually initiated by the first chairman of ISRO, Dr. Vikram Sarabhai, shortly before his death in 1971, but it was inexplicably dumped soon afterwards. There is a view that people connected with Vikas engine (whose design was based on the licensed version of the Viking engine) and the proponents of other propellants pulled this project down. The Vikas engine is used in powering the second stage of PSLV, which is the most reliable workhorse of ISRO and has played a role in ISRO’s success. However, it also could be said that timely investments in semi-cryogenic technology would have helped India to have a world-class launch capability for launching various categories of satellites, some four decades back.
Interestingly, there has been no talk in India about a Mars agenda. During the 2013–2014 period ISRO successfully undertook its first mission to Mars. Roughly every 26 months there is an opportunity to visit Mars. The next launch window for Mars would be in late 2026. However, there is no clarity about when the second Mars mission would happen. Some reports indicate that the second mission to Mars may happen around 2031. This means there could be a gap of at least 15 years between two successive missions to Mars.
During India’s lunar program, it was observed that there was a gap of around ten years between the first and second mission. It is important to recognize that such long gaps between two missions are not advisable, as they can lead to a loss of momentum and expertise, and risk eroding institutional memory. The technology used in earlier missions may become outdated, requiring additional technological and financial investments. Additionally, gaps can disrupt data continuity, making it difficult to build upon previous findings. This can hamper the development of accurate numerical models, confusing data analysis and planning for future uncrewed or crewed missions.
In closing
India has unveiled an ambitious space agenda from 2025 to 2040. While it includes some fresh proposals, the overall thrust appears to be on consolidating past achievements and systematically building upon existing initiatives. However, to translate this vision into reality, it is critical that India minimizes the gap between ambition and execution. Drawing lessons from past experiences would help in assessing the feasibility of proposed missions and timelines. If required, ISRO needs to make timely mid-course corrections to adjust to various technological or financial challenges which may emerge in the future. For next 15 years, ISRO needs to maintain a realistic, flexible, and performance-driven adaptation plan.
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