Revisiting the Wolf Amendment after 15 yearsby Jeff Foust
|
| “In the current situation, identification of areas of agreement and joint initiatives would likely prove useful as lubricants,” Hart said of US-China relations. |
The situation prompted online calls for SpaceX to “rescue” the Chinese astronauts with a Dragon spacecraft. There are several reasons why that was unlikely, not the least of which is that Shenzhou and Dragon use different docking mechanisms. Any attempt to develop a technical solution would create technology transfer concerns and require government-to-government coordination, likely between CMSEO and NASA.
And that brings up another obstacle: the Wolf Amendment. The provision, first placed into appropriations bills 15 years ago by then-Rep. Frank Wolf (R-VA), who chaired the appropriations subcommittee that funded NASA, strictly limits bilateral cooperation between NASA and Chinese organizations. While not an explicit ban, it has had the effect of chilling nearly all potential cooperation between NASA and China.
Modifying, or eliminating, the Wolf Amendment has come up from time to time since then. That includes a recent event at the George Washington University Space Policy Institute that debated the future of the Wolf Amendment, building upon a paper on the topic by The Aerospace Corporation earlier this year. The question for the debate: “Should the Wolf Amendment be repealed?”
Taking the stance that it should be repealed was Dan Hart, a member of the National Academies’ Space Studies Board and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, as well as a longtime space industry executive best known as CEO of now-defunct launch company Virgin Orbit.
He argued that it made little sense for the United States to avoid cooperation with China in space when two countries interact significantly with each other on Earth. “We’re not in isolation here on Earth,” he said.
Space cooperation, he suggested, could be a way for the two countries to pull back from an increasingly acrimonious relationship. “In the current situation, identification of areas of agreement and joint initiatives would likely prove useful as lubricants,” he said, drawing parallels to cooperation between the United States and Soviet Union in space during the Cold War.
The Wolf Amendment “diminishes our ability to leverage NASA and its core space exploration diplomatic mission at a time when we’re navigating a fraught relationship with NASA,” he said. “It potentially deteriorates US prestige and admiration we’ve earned as the global leader of space exploration.”
One example of potential cooperation was the issue with the Shenzhou spacecraft, which he described as “low-hanging fruit” to implement international agreements on the rescue and return of astronauts. “Would it not be a huge humanitarian gesture and a diplomatic gesture” to offer to help China with that problem, Hart said.
NASA has the ability to protect its technology from unauthorized transfer to China as part of any cooperation, he asserted, more so than American companies that do business in China, from Apple to Tesla. “We should probably be more worried about how these other companies that are driving the front of technology are protected.”
| “Apollo-Soyuz did not bring about détente,” said Cheng. “Apollo-Soyuz was a product of détente.” |
Taking the case that the Wolf Amendment should not be repealed was Dean Cheng, a nonresident senior fellow at the Potomac Institute and formerly a senior research fellow on China at the Heritage Foundation.
He argued that space’s ability to influence foreign policy is overstated, with cooperation a lagging rather than a leading indicator. That was the case during the Cold War: “Apollo-Soyuz did not bring about détente. Apollo-Soyuz was a product of détente.”
Moreover, even if US-Soviet space cooperation helped improve relations, it does not mean the same approach will work with China. “It has a very different view of things like balance-of-power politics,” he said of the Chinese government, as well as on issues like international stability and transparency. “The Soviets are not the Chinese.”
Space cooperation is far down the list of priorities in the relations between the two countries, he concluded. “What we need is to establish a firmer foundation of broader relations,” he said, before considering space cooperation.
He noted the Wolf Amendment only applies to NASA and the National Space Council. Other government agencies can talk to China on space issues, including the U.S. Space Force informing China of potential close approaches of objects to Tiangong.
There is also the question of if China wants to cooperate with the United States in space, and if so, what they hope to achieve. “One of the questions that is not really addressed is, what do we think the Chinese want for cooperation? What do we think they want for that dialogue?”
The Trump wild-card factor
Throughout the last 15 years, the Wolf Amendment has been tweaked, but there has been little in the way of efforts to make major changes to it or repeal it in Congress, both when Republican and Democrats have been in power.
“My assessment is that there is bipartisan support” for the amendment, Cheng concluded. “It’s not that it’s hard, it’s that nobody wants to be seen as repealing it.”
| “If it was last year, I would say it is impossible: it’s not going to happen,” Sutter said of any new US-China space cooperation. “This year, I would say it depends on Trump.” |
But another speaker at the event suggested a possible way to revise or remove the amendment. “Donald Trump, unlike just about any other major leader I can think of in the United States, does not say China is a threat,” said Robert Sutter, a George Washington University professor who specializes in China relations, said. “They take advantage of us, that’s the argument he makes. He doesn’t say they’re a threat.”
He says Trump is looking for a beneficial economic deal for the United States. “On the Chinese side, they want exchanges,” he argued. “They’re always looking for leverage.”
Sutter said such exchanges could involve cooperation with NASA. “The president is interested in keeping a stable relationship with China as he seeks the bigger deal on the economic side,” he said, and thus could pressure the Republican majorities in Congress to accept any agreement for new cooperation between NASA and China.
“If it was last year, I would say it is impossible: it’s not going to happen,” he said of any new US-China space cooperation. “This year, I would say it depends on Trump. If he thinks it’s a good idea, it would be hard to stop.”
President Trump hasn’t discussed US-China space cooperation, but as on other issues a single statement could be all that’s necessary to reshape the dynamics.
“The level of cooperation we’re going to have depends on what the overall relationship looks like,” said Scott Pace, director of the Space Policy Institute and former executive secretary of the National Space Council, in opening remarks at the event. Changing the Wolf Amendment, he concluded, means “the US-China relationship would have to change.”
The recent incident with the damaged Shenzhou spacecraft does not appear to have triggered any change in that relationship. If the US quietly offered any assistance, China does not appear to have accepted it. Instead, it launched the Shenzhou-22 uncrewed spacecraft as this article was being published, sending it to Tiangong to serve as the return spacecraft for the Shenzhou-21 crew there in place of the damaged Shenzhou-20. For now, the two countries continue to go their own ways in space.
Note: we are now moderating comments. There will be a delay in posting comments and no guarantee that all submitted comments will be posted.